YTD 9-4 +5.6 units
I went nuts today and bet too many games. I've got 10 with brief rationales included.
Jets +6.5
This is a hunch, I think these teams are actually fairly evenly matched. Neither team has put together much of a rushing attack, though I'll take Martin over the Pats RBs. Moss is becoming a bigger threat for the Jets. I look for the Jets to control some clock today with Vinny looking a little more comfortable at QB. Close game with 6.5 coming in handy.
Jags/Colts under 43
Dungy has the Indy looking tough and with the exception of the first half vs Carolina the Jaguar offense has been stiff. On the other hand the Colts offense isn't clicking, although they might be due. I think the Jags get held below 17.
Vikes/Lions over 47
The Viking receivers should run wild through the Lions secondary. Harrington will connect enough to get the Lions 20+ and push this one over. Their 2002 games went 55 and 74 in Detroit.
Saints +4.5 (2 units)
The Saints D hasn't been that bad as yet and I have to believe McNair's passing will be hampered to some extent by the dislocated finger. Tennessee can't count on George to carry the load. He's beginning to look ineffective like a lot of upright power runners after a few years of punishment in the NFL. Offensively the Saints can be exposive if Brooks limits his mistakes. I believe the Titans secondary can be exploited. The Saints have straight up potential in this one and I think 4.5 will save the day if they don't win outright.
Tampa -4.5
I just don't see Atlanta sustaining many drives against this defense. Price is overrated as a featured wide out and with the exception of Crumpler doesn't have anyone to help free him up in the secondary. The Bucs quick D will contain Dunn and Duckett and the smallish Atlanta D will eventually wear down from being on the field too long. The Bucs by 14.
Chiefs -7.5
If Carr gets some time the Texans could stay close, but I don't think they have the running attack to take the heat off him. With the Chiefs improved D and dangerous offense it will be a potentially long gruesome day for Houston.
Packers/Cards over 43
Hot day should favor offenses over defenses which tend to tire more quickly. Both teams will be launching a lot of passes. NFL teams seldom get shut down back to back Sundays at home and Arizona will contribute enough points to push this one over.
Ravens -1
Kind of worried about this one, no doubt the Ravens have the much better defense and on paper should dominate the Chargers on the ground and by controlling the clock. But it is tough to bet on a rookie QB on the road in a favorite role.
49ers -7
The Browns defense looked inept last week and today they face a better balanced offensive team. Holcomb looks ineffective and they have the look of a team that might struggle through the first half of the season. The niners will be looking to bounce back big after a frustrating loss to the Rams putting them in an early must win situation after losing a division game and Seattle's quick start.
Bills +3
I'm jumping on the Bills band wagon (although I had them against NE). The Dolphins have not generated much of a pass rush which is not a good thing going against Bledsoe. It should be a tight game, I can't see the Dolphins being able to put the Bills away and 3 points could easily be the difference.
Good luck, unless of course you bet against me.
I went nuts today and bet too many games. I've got 10 with brief rationales included.
Jets +6.5
This is a hunch, I think these teams are actually fairly evenly matched. Neither team has put together much of a rushing attack, though I'll take Martin over the Pats RBs. Moss is becoming a bigger threat for the Jets. I look for the Jets to control some clock today with Vinny looking a little more comfortable at QB. Close game with 6.5 coming in handy.
Jags/Colts under 43
Dungy has the Indy looking tough and with the exception of the first half vs Carolina the Jaguar offense has been stiff. On the other hand the Colts offense isn't clicking, although they might be due. I think the Jags get held below 17.
Vikes/Lions over 47
The Viking receivers should run wild through the Lions secondary. Harrington will connect enough to get the Lions 20+ and push this one over. Their 2002 games went 55 and 74 in Detroit.
Saints +4.5 (2 units)
The Saints D hasn't been that bad as yet and I have to believe McNair's passing will be hampered to some extent by the dislocated finger. Tennessee can't count on George to carry the load. He's beginning to look ineffective like a lot of upright power runners after a few years of punishment in the NFL. Offensively the Saints can be exposive if Brooks limits his mistakes. I believe the Titans secondary can be exploited. The Saints have straight up potential in this one and I think 4.5 will save the day if they don't win outright.
Tampa -4.5
I just don't see Atlanta sustaining many drives against this defense. Price is overrated as a featured wide out and with the exception of Crumpler doesn't have anyone to help free him up in the secondary. The Bucs quick D will contain Dunn and Duckett and the smallish Atlanta D will eventually wear down from being on the field too long. The Bucs by 14.
Chiefs -7.5
If Carr gets some time the Texans could stay close, but I don't think they have the running attack to take the heat off him. With the Chiefs improved D and dangerous offense it will be a potentially long gruesome day for Houston.
Packers/Cards over 43
Hot day should favor offenses over defenses which tend to tire more quickly. Both teams will be launching a lot of passes. NFL teams seldom get shut down back to back Sundays at home and Arizona will contribute enough points to push this one over.
Ravens -1
Kind of worried about this one, no doubt the Ravens have the much better defense and on paper should dominate the Chargers on the ground and by controlling the clock. But it is tough to bet on a rookie QB on the road in a favorite role.
49ers -7
The Browns defense looked inept last week and today they face a better balanced offensive team. Holcomb looks ineffective and they have the look of a team that might struggle through the first half of the season. The niners will be looking to bounce back big after a frustrating loss to the Rams putting them in an early must win situation after losing a division game and Seattle's quick start.
Bills +3
I'm jumping on the Bills band wagon (although I had them against NE). The Dolphins have not generated much of a pass rush which is not a good thing going against Bledsoe. It should be a tight game, I can't see the Dolphins being able to put the Bills away and 3 points could easily be the difference.
Good luck, unless of course you bet against me.
